Market update week 37
The improvement shown in the last two weeks allows for greater debate in a setting still dominated by Black Sea competitiveness, particularly on wheat. The situation is, however, under watch in Russia, as local specialists continue to reduce their production predictions in anticipation of a spring wheat harvest hampered by weather that is too dry on the Volga and too rainy in Siberia.
The improvement shown in the last two weeks allows for greater debate in a setting still dominated by Black Sea competitiveness, particularly on wheat. The situation is, however, under watch in Russia, as local specialists continue to reduce their production predictions in anticipation of a spring wheat harvest hampered by weather that is too dry on the Volga and too rainy in Siberia.
Patience is even more important as multiple reports liven up the week, as after StatsCan and the MPOB, CONAB and subsequently the USDA will update its balance sheets on Thursday. Positions are being adjusted, and while supply is well understood, the question of demand remains. China is one of the most concerned countries, following the announcement of measures affecting barley and sorghum imports, as well as the commencement of the anti-dumping action on Canadian canola.
Patience is even more important as multiple reports liven up the week, as after StatsCan and the MPOB, CONAB and subsequently the USDA will update its balance sheets on Thursday. Positions are being adjusted, and while supply is well understood, the question of demand remains. China is one of the most concerned countries, following the announcement of measures affecting barley and sorghum imports, as well as the commencement of the anti-dumping action on Canadian canola.
IKAR updates its Russian wheat crop projections from 83.8 MMT to 82.2 MMT (-1.1%). The USDA’s estimate is still 83 MMT. Furthermore, both the USDA and the ARC forecast that EU + Black Sea wheat production will be at its lowest level since 2018.
IKAR updates its Russian wheat crop projections from 83.8 MMT to 82.2 MMT (-1.1%). The USDA’s estimate is still 83 MMT. Furthermore, both the USDA and the ARC forecast that EU + Black Sea wheat production will be at its lowest level since 2018.